I have taken a vow years ago to not discuss politics or bring any negative energy to my Facebook timeline, but allow me to take a break from this vow just this once and be serious for a moment.
Brexit? Brace for WWIII.
Donald Trump won the US Presidency? Brace for WWIII.
Turkish air force shot down Russian bomber? WWIII has begun!
I stubbed my toe? Must be WWIII!
These are the sort of posts we all expect to see on social media the minute something of any political significance happens anywhere in the world... and while I'm not discounting the seriousness of any of these events -especially the stubbed toe- my argument is that we shouldn't buy into all the doomsday talk that inevitably follows. I write this of course because of the recent assassination of the Russian ambassador in Turkey, which has many historically uninformed people in my social circles drawing parallels to the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand which kick-started WWI... much like they drew parallels between Putin's invasion of Crimea and Hitler's invasion of Poland, and between Russia's alleged cyber-attack on the US Democratic National Committee and the Cuban missile crisis.
Let me first address this case specifically; while the assassination of the Russian ambassador is no doubt tragic, it will not start WWIII. The reason? Turkey and Russia have been reconciling over the past few months after Turkey shot down a Russian jet in November 2015, and it is in both of their best interests to quickly manage this crisis, as evidenced by the fact that the Russian and Turkish presidents have both publicly announced that this attack was meant to harm Turkish-Russian relations and that they would not allow this to derail the Syria talks planned for today. Russia and Turkey are both regionally isolated, and both stand to lose from a prolonged Syrian civil war because of the increased risk of Islamic insurgency. Additionally, a Russian economy ravaged by US and EU sanctions cannot afford to lose a trading partner as important as Turkey, and Turkey cannot afford to lose an export market as big as Russia as well as a valuable source of tourism income... and most importantly, Turkey does not want a war with nuclear-armed Russia, just as Russia does not want a war with NATO-member Turkey.
What I wrote above is my personal analysis, which you can feel free to agree or disagree with. I'm not writing this post to discuss Turkey-Russia relations, however. This is a job best left for the experts, which I do not claim to be... so let me take a step back and speak more generally. Here are my top reasons to dismiss any talk of WWIII as media hype:
1- No one wants WWIII.
Let's start with the obvious one; no one in the world- not even the most depraved, egocentric lunatic wants to start a world war. Let's analyze the previous world wars; in both cases, international trade was relatively limited and international diplomacy was in its infancy. While WWI was hardly the first global conflict (read up on the Napoleonic wars, for example), it was completely unprecedented in terms of scale of destruction and casualties due to the development of new, previously untested war-fighting methods such as machine guns, chemical warfare, biplanes, TNT and even the first tanks. Since all of these technologies were still new and unused, humanity had not yet realized that this war would evolve into something else entirely; a war so horrific that it was nicknamed "The War to End All Wars" -ironically, as it turned out. Many historians believe that WWII is a direct continuation of WWI, since Hitler's rise to power can be directly linked to the discontent the German public felt towards the treaty of Versaille, where Germany was obligated to pay reparations due to its role in the war, which they felt was unfair.
The point being that WWI, and by extension WWII, were the products of humanity's ignorance of the cost of war after the development of new, significantly more destructive forms of warfare... and even though cyber, drone and information warfare are also new concepts that world leaders and strategists the world over are still grappling with, humanity today is well aware of the cost of global conflict. If the world powers had known what WWI would evolve into, they most definitely would have contained the crisis and attempted to resolve it diplomatically... and if nuclear weapons had existed at the time, a war would have been completely out of the question.
2- WWIII would kill literally everyone -and everything- on the planet.
WWIII, if it ever happens, would be a nuclear war. Considering that the number of nuclear warheads possessed by the United States and Russia (which will both most certainly be involved in a third world war) number in the tens of thousands, they have enough destructive potential to completely annihilate all life on the planet... and that's not mentioning the nuclear weapons possessed by China, India, Pakistan, UK, France, Israel and North Korea... and it's not just about radioactive poisoning, in case you think living in remote or nonstrategic areas would protect you- it wouldn't take more than a few nuclear mushroom clouds to completely destroy the Ozone layer and kick up enough dirt to completely envelop our planet's atmosphere, blocking out the sun... which as you might be aware is how most historians believe the dinosaurs went extinct. Apart from the nuclear fallout, all plant life would die due to the lack of sunlight and the intense cold of the nuclear winter, followed by the animals that feed on them, triggering a mass extinction. Even apart from that, assuming humanity is somehow still able to grow food without sunlight, the disruption in global shipping and trade would likely result in widespread famine in areas that can't grow their own food.
In short, every politician in the world knows that the minute the first nuke is fired, humanity is doomed and we're all dead. No politician would end the world for the sake of their own ego, not even Putin or Trump. If Putin wanted a world war, he had a perfectly good opportunity when Turkey shot down his jet last year. Everyone knows what's at stake, and no one wants it.
3- The world is interlinked by global trade and globalization.
Today's world is globalized and heavily reliant on global trade. Starting a world war is just too expensive, as no country can afford to isolate itself and disrupt global shipping. Take the United States and China for example; the size of their mutual trade is THE key driver for the world economy... and even though they could not disagree more on democracy and despite the fact that China's rise could conceivably challenge US hegemony within the next 50 years, both countries are well-aware that they cannot afford to fight each other because it's simply too bad for business. The entire world is interlinked through trade, and this creates very unfavorable conditions for global conflict- luckily for us.
4- There are clearly defined geopolitical blocs and alliances.
Among the biggest reasons why WWI began was because Europe was a complete mess of conflicting alliances. No one could clearly understand who was on whose side, and that resulted in an element of unpredictability, which caused a chain reaction no one could have foreseen when Archduke Ferdinand was shot. In today's world, however, even though Syria might seem like a similar mess to early 20th century Europe and Trump's rise to power might challenge the existing global order of alliances, the geopolitical blocs are still very clear; NATO forms one -in partnership with the Scandinavian countries, Japan, South Korea, Australia and increasingly, India- and an uneasy Russia/China alliance forms the other, with an alliance of circumstance with North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. In very broad terms, it's easy to predict how a conflict would play out, which makes all involved countries aware of what they'd be getting into... which also makes it possible to establish rules and dialogue to prevent tensions from boiling over.
5- WWIII talk shouldn't be acceptable.
I feel very strongly about this point; WWIII should not be easy to talk about. Perception is reality; if we grow accustomed to thinking that WWIII is even a remote possibility, what happens when one of us one day becomes one of those world leaders who carry the fate of the planet on their shoulders but is not horrified by the prospect of a third world war? WWIII should forever be unspeakable, inconceivable, a prospect too terrifying to even consider or think about. What it shouldn't be is a constant topic of discussion around the office water cooler. Ask your parents what it was like to live in the shadow of the Cold War, constantly worried about the prospect of a nuclear Armageddon... it is most certainly not a state of affairs we want to impose on ourselves today, and it is definitely not something to casually joke about on social media as if it were an insignificant eventuality we would survive.
Understand that WWIII is game over for humanity.
It is not funny, period.
6- Spreading panic.
Being constantly aware of the news is both a blessing and a curse for our generation. During the Cold War, our parents could simply avoid the news if they wanted to; but today, the internet keeps us up to date with all the tragedies in the world, and it's completely unavoidable unless you turn off your phone and avoid the internet entirely. When you share a bit of news and caption it "WWIII is here" or something along these lines, odds are that when someone reads this, at best it would ruin their day and at worst it would make them panic. I speak from experience; I'm no stranger to panic attacks -complete with cold sweats and hyperventilation- for various reasons I'm not planning to get into, but I can relate to the feeling of hopelessness so severe that it's all you can do to stay in bed and do nothing because ultimately nothing matters if your world seems to be ending anyways.
Long story short, even if you're panicking, there's no reason to spread the panic and scare others. Try to find a sensible, level headed person and have them calm you down and logically convince you that it's not as bad as you think. Get off the internet and read a book or play a game. Go for a jog. Sleep. Scream into a pillow if you have to. Just be aware that spreading doomsday panic is incredibly selfish... I personally make it a point to unfollow people who do it because I don't need this kind of negativity in my life. Have some compassion... Life is dark and depressing enough without your help, and everyone can read the news for themselves; your doomsday caption isn't doing anybody any favors.
In short, if you're pessimistic or panicky, suck it up and keep it to yourself.
7- Media, media, media.
Last but not least, the media. We sometimes fail to remember that media is run like a business; and most news agencies often have political affiliations and agendas depending on who's funding them (Aljazeera promotes Qatar's views, Alarabiya promotes Saudi Arabia's views, Fox News is Republican, etc.). In other words, we should always take whatever news they share with a grain of salt... and these are the reputable news agencies, no less. What would you expect from tabloids and less reputable news agencies? Such publications rely on having catchy titles to get internet traffic, which is how they make money... and they are not above using doomsday captions and hyping up every insignificant story to epic proportions. It is our duty, therefore, as educated and intelligent people to know how to filter out the actual news from the click-bait, and to always get our news from as many credible news agencies as possible in order to get the real news and not whatever politicized or hyped up version each individual news agency might be advocating for.
These are the top reasons why I don't think we should be discussing WWIII at all. In fact, humanity faces much more pressing dangers that we should be worrying about, such as global warming and A.I development (which Stephen Hawking has warned could bring about human extinction). Now, I'm not saying that WWIII is impossible, there is always the risk of brinkmanship and miscalculations or mistakes, but it's unlikely and odds are it will never happen. WWIII hype is just that; hype. Don't fall for it... in fact, actively fight it if you can. Refuse to participate in such conversations and question the credibility of any publication discussing it (since they would almost definitely be Tabloids such as the Daily Mail or Express.co.uk), and develop a healthy sense of cynicism... or you would essentially live your whole life too terrified to step out of your reinforced bunker. If people had this same attitude during the Cold War, everyone would have barricaded themselves at home in the 1950s and waited for the world to end... And they'd still be waiting today, and hopefully still will be for hundreds of years.
*************************
Brexit? Brace for WWIII.
Donald Trump won the US Presidency? Brace for WWIII.
Turkish air force shot down Russian bomber? WWIII has begun!
I stubbed my toe? Must be WWIII!
These are the sort of posts we all expect to see on social media the minute something of any political significance happens anywhere in the world... and while I'm not discounting the seriousness of any of these events -especially the stubbed toe- my argument is that we shouldn't buy into all the doomsday talk that inevitably follows. I write this of course because of the recent assassination of the Russian ambassador in Turkey, which has many historically uninformed people in my social circles drawing parallels to the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand which kick-started WWI... much like they drew parallels between Putin's invasion of Crimea and Hitler's invasion of Poland, and between Russia's alleged cyber-attack on the US Democratic National Committee and the Cuban missile crisis.
Let me first address this case specifically; while the assassination of the Russian ambassador is no doubt tragic, it will not start WWIII. The reason? Turkey and Russia have been reconciling over the past few months after Turkey shot down a Russian jet in November 2015, and it is in both of their best interests to quickly manage this crisis, as evidenced by the fact that the Russian and Turkish presidents have both publicly announced that this attack was meant to harm Turkish-Russian relations and that they would not allow this to derail the Syria talks planned for today. Russia and Turkey are both regionally isolated, and both stand to lose from a prolonged Syrian civil war because of the increased risk of Islamic insurgency. Additionally, a Russian economy ravaged by US and EU sanctions cannot afford to lose a trading partner as important as Turkey, and Turkey cannot afford to lose an export market as big as Russia as well as a valuable source of tourism income... and most importantly, Turkey does not want a war with nuclear-armed Russia, just as Russia does not want a war with NATO-member Turkey.
What I wrote above is my personal analysis, which you can feel free to agree or disagree with. I'm not writing this post to discuss Turkey-Russia relations, however. This is a job best left for the experts, which I do not claim to be... so let me take a step back and speak more generally. Here are my top reasons to dismiss any talk of WWIII as media hype:
1- No one wants WWIII.
Let's start with the obvious one; no one in the world- not even the most depraved, egocentric lunatic wants to start a world war. Let's analyze the previous world wars; in both cases, international trade was relatively limited and international diplomacy was in its infancy. While WWI was hardly the first global conflict (read up on the Napoleonic wars, for example), it was completely unprecedented in terms of scale of destruction and casualties due to the development of new, previously untested war-fighting methods such as machine guns, chemical warfare, biplanes, TNT and even the first tanks. Since all of these technologies were still new and unused, humanity had not yet realized that this war would evolve into something else entirely; a war so horrific that it was nicknamed "The War to End All Wars" -ironically, as it turned out. Many historians believe that WWII is a direct continuation of WWI, since Hitler's rise to power can be directly linked to the discontent the German public felt towards the treaty of Versaille, where Germany was obligated to pay reparations due to its role in the war, which they felt was unfair.
The point being that WWI, and by extension WWII, were the products of humanity's ignorance of the cost of war after the development of new, significantly more destructive forms of warfare... and even though cyber, drone and information warfare are also new concepts that world leaders and strategists the world over are still grappling with, humanity today is well aware of the cost of global conflict. If the world powers had known what WWI would evolve into, they most definitely would have contained the crisis and attempted to resolve it diplomatically... and if nuclear weapons had existed at the time, a war would have been completely out of the question.
2- WWIII would kill literally everyone -and everything- on the planet.
WWIII, if it ever happens, would be a nuclear war. Considering that the number of nuclear warheads possessed by the United States and Russia (which will both most certainly be involved in a third world war) number in the tens of thousands, they have enough destructive potential to completely annihilate all life on the planet... and that's not mentioning the nuclear weapons possessed by China, India, Pakistan, UK, France, Israel and North Korea... and it's not just about radioactive poisoning, in case you think living in remote or nonstrategic areas would protect you- it wouldn't take more than a few nuclear mushroom clouds to completely destroy the Ozone layer and kick up enough dirt to completely envelop our planet's atmosphere, blocking out the sun... which as you might be aware is how most historians believe the dinosaurs went extinct. Apart from the nuclear fallout, all plant life would die due to the lack of sunlight and the intense cold of the nuclear winter, followed by the animals that feed on them, triggering a mass extinction. Even apart from that, assuming humanity is somehow still able to grow food without sunlight, the disruption in global shipping and trade would likely result in widespread famine in areas that can't grow their own food.
In short, every politician in the world knows that the minute the first nuke is fired, humanity is doomed and we're all dead. No politician would end the world for the sake of their own ego, not even Putin or Trump. If Putin wanted a world war, he had a perfectly good opportunity when Turkey shot down his jet last year. Everyone knows what's at stake, and no one wants it.
3- The world is interlinked by global trade and globalization.
Today's world is globalized and heavily reliant on global trade. Starting a world war is just too expensive, as no country can afford to isolate itself and disrupt global shipping. Take the United States and China for example; the size of their mutual trade is THE key driver for the world economy... and even though they could not disagree more on democracy and despite the fact that China's rise could conceivably challenge US hegemony within the next 50 years, both countries are well-aware that they cannot afford to fight each other because it's simply too bad for business. The entire world is interlinked through trade, and this creates very unfavorable conditions for global conflict- luckily for us.
4- There are clearly defined geopolitical blocs and alliances.
Among the biggest reasons why WWI began was because Europe was a complete mess of conflicting alliances. No one could clearly understand who was on whose side, and that resulted in an element of unpredictability, which caused a chain reaction no one could have foreseen when Archduke Ferdinand was shot. In today's world, however, even though Syria might seem like a similar mess to early 20th century Europe and Trump's rise to power might challenge the existing global order of alliances, the geopolitical blocs are still very clear; NATO forms one -in partnership with the Scandinavian countries, Japan, South Korea, Australia and increasingly, India- and an uneasy Russia/China alliance forms the other, with an alliance of circumstance with North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. In very broad terms, it's easy to predict how a conflict would play out, which makes all involved countries aware of what they'd be getting into... which also makes it possible to establish rules and dialogue to prevent tensions from boiling over.
5- WWIII talk shouldn't be acceptable.
I feel very strongly about this point; WWIII should not be easy to talk about. Perception is reality; if we grow accustomed to thinking that WWIII is even a remote possibility, what happens when one of us one day becomes one of those world leaders who carry the fate of the planet on their shoulders but is not horrified by the prospect of a third world war? WWIII should forever be unspeakable, inconceivable, a prospect too terrifying to even consider or think about. What it shouldn't be is a constant topic of discussion around the office water cooler. Ask your parents what it was like to live in the shadow of the Cold War, constantly worried about the prospect of a nuclear Armageddon... it is most certainly not a state of affairs we want to impose on ourselves today, and it is definitely not something to casually joke about on social media as if it were an insignificant eventuality we would survive.
Understand that WWIII is game over for humanity.
It is not funny, period.
6- Spreading panic.
Being constantly aware of the news is both a blessing and a curse for our generation. During the Cold War, our parents could simply avoid the news if they wanted to; but today, the internet keeps us up to date with all the tragedies in the world, and it's completely unavoidable unless you turn off your phone and avoid the internet entirely. When you share a bit of news and caption it "WWIII is here" or something along these lines, odds are that when someone reads this, at best it would ruin their day and at worst it would make them panic. I speak from experience; I'm no stranger to panic attacks -complete with cold sweats and hyperventilation- for various reasons I'm not planning to get into, but I can relate to the feeling of hopelessness so severe that it's all you can do to stay in bed and do nothing because ultimately nothing matters if your world seems to be ending anyways.
Long story short, even if you're panicking, there's no reason to spread the panic and scare others. Try to find a sensible, level headed person and have them calm you down and logically convince you that it's not as bad as you think. Get off the internet and read a book or play a game. Go for a jog. Sleep. Scream into a pillow if you have to. Just be aware that spreading doomsday panic is incredibly selfish... I personally make it a point to unfollow people who do it because I don't need this kind of negativity in my life. Have some compassion... Life is dark and depressing enough without your help, and everyone can read the news for themselves; your doomsday caption isn't doing anybody any favors.
In short, if you're pessimistic or panicky, suck it up and keep it to yourself.
7- Media, media, media.
Last but not least, the media. We sometimes fail to remember that media is run like a business; and most news agencies often have political affiliations and agendas depending on who's funding them (Aljazeera promotes Qatar's views, Alarabiya promotes Saudi Arabia's views, Fox News is Republican, etc.). In other words, we should always take whatever news they share with a grain of salt... and these are the reputable news agencies, no less. What would you expect from tabloids and less reputable news agencies? Such publications rely on having catchy titles to get internet traffic, which is how they make money... and they are not above using doomsday captions and hyping up every insignificant story to epic proportions. It is our duty, therefore, as educated and intelligent people to know how to filter out the actual news from the click-bait, and to always get our news from as many credible news agencies as possible in order to get the real news and not whatever politicized or hyped up version each individual news agency might be advocating for.
These are the top reasons why I don't think we should be discussing WWIII at all. In fact, humanity faces much more pressing dangers that we should be worrying about, such as global warming and A.I development (which Stephen Hawking has warned could bring about human extinction). Now, I'm not saying that WWIII is impossible, there is always the risk of brinkmanship and miscalculations or mistakes, but it's unlikely and odds are it will never happen. WWIII hype is just that; hype. Don't fall for it... in fact, actively fight it if you can. Refuse to participate in such conversations and question the credibility of any publication discussing it (since they would almost definitely be Tabloids such as the Daily Mail or Express.co.uk), and develop a healthy sense of cynicism... or you would essentially live your whole life too terrified to step out of your reinforced bunker. If people had this same attitude during the Cold War, everyone would have barricaded themselves at home in the 1950s and waited for the world to end... And they'd still be waiting today, and hopefully still will be for hundreds of years.
And at the end of the day, even in the statistically improbable and highly unlikely event of a nuclear holocaust, it would more likely than not be quick and painless. I can think of worse ways to go... Give me a mushroom cloud over cancer, any day.
I leave you now with Adele's immortal words:
Let the sky fall,
When it crumbles...
We will stand tall,
And face it all together.
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